THE NEW NAME FOR THE E1 AREA WILL BE TRUMP

Periodically, as someone who has set short stories in Israel/Palestine and co-edited an anthology of fiction set in the Middle East, I endeavor to explain something that the mainstream media has obscured. The news is filled with images of jubilant Gazans, presumably hopeful that the recent agreement means the bombings will stop. Meanwhile, outside the headlines, consequential happenings in the West Bank are getting far less press, at least in the US.

The Israeli cabinet has approved settlement within a 12 square kilometer area called E1. Once built, the settlement will span the area between East Jerusalem, envisioned in the Oslo process as the capital of a future Palestinian state, and Ma’ale Adumim, a Jewish settlement of approximately 40,000 people. To the east of Ma’ale Adumim lies Highway 90, which runs from the southernmost to the northernmost part of Israel, close to the border with Jordan. For a 1 ½ -hour ride in the middle, it goes through the West Bank, with a checkpoint to both the north and south. The Israeli military controls this route. The military also controls the part of Highway 1 that runs east from Jerusalem to Jericho, passing just north of Ma’ale Adumim. 

Two additional roads are under construction that would allow north-south passage through E1. One road would be solely for Israelis. The other would be solely for West Bank Palestinians. The latter, called the Fabric of Life Road by the Israelis, will run from the northern West Bank to the southern part without checkpoints. The Israeli government considers the proposed transportational continuity within the West Bank an argument that E1 settlement would not cut the West Bank in two.

A road to the east of Ma’ale Adumim for Palestinians has also been proposed, but the steep escarpment may make construction near impossible. Moreover, the road would need to drop 4000 kilometers in elevation and then rise back up the same amount if it was to allow passage from Ramallah to Bethlehem.

Regardless, transportational continuity is not territorial continuity. Three major cities that would be essential to the economic viability of any future Palestinian state—Ramallah, East Jerusalem, and Bethlehem—would be isolated. It has been argued that making it impossible for these cities to expand into a unified metropolitan area would make commerce impossible that is essential for a future Palestinian state to be viable.

I don’t have the background to examine this assumption critically. However, the political and economic experts advising every US President from Carter to Biden have held this position. That’s good enough for me to conclude the contention is most likely correct. It’s not clear to me whether Trump even has experts weighing in on this issue.

The name proposed by the mayor of the Adumim block (who gets to do this naming) for the E1 area that connects his home to Jerusalem and cuts the West Bank into Bantustans? Trump. I kid you not.

The fourth Bantustan—Gaza—was promised a road to connect it to the West Bank in the Oslo Accords. Draft agreements had substantial territory surrounding this road ceded from what is now the Negev Desert to the new Palestinian state in exchange for land Israel considered to be of greater strategic importance. Instead, Gaza will likely remain cut off from the other three areas. And patrolled by Saudi and Emirati troops for the forever future.

E1 development was proposed as far back as the 1970s but never pursued because of the strenuous opposition of all American Presidents from that time on, other than Trump. The Israeli right figured out the formula to win American support: flattery for our leader.

The Democracy Index calls Israel a flawed democracy. (US democracy is also rated as flawed.) In any type of democracy, elections have consequences. The next Israeli elections will come in 2026, by Israeli law, no later than October 27. The building in E1 will not have been completed by that time. Indeed, bidding is still in process, and no contractors have been hired. As such, at present, nothing seems irreversible.

Sure, anything built can be demolished, but the political will to do so diminishes once a project reaches completion. By 2027, if unimpeded, E1 construction will most likely remain.

I would very much like to continue believing peace and a two-state solution remain possible. My take: whether that is a fantasy will be decided within the next year. If E1 construction reaches completion, the current respite in bloodletting will most likely end.

I hope I am wrong in my prediction. I don’t think I will be.